OO 4232 · DTW → APN

departs 4:00 PM ET · arrives 5:11 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at APN more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to APN?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ DTW is busy at that time

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at APN that day

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

APN (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4232 · DTW → APN

Odds over time

How late will it get to APN?