OO 5460 · SFO → PHX

departs 12:27 PM PT · arrives 2:36 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±7 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at PHX that day

↑ 12pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5460 · SFO → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?