OO 5599 · CRQ → SFO

took off 6:42 PM -03 · expected to land 3:50 PM PT (scheduled 5:50 PM -03 → 3:46 PM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

LIVE

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CRQ (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5599 · CRQ → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?