Schedule: FAA flight plans.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6430 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 7:58 AM MT (22 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Monday, October 12 Today

OO 6430 · PHX → SFO

departs 7:29 AM MT · arrives 9:41 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 6430 · PHX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?