OO 6453 · FSD → PHX

departs 8:16 AM CT · arrives 9:12 AM MT

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FSD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

FSD (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 6453 · FSD → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?