PD 2122 · EWR → YTZ

departs 9:02 AM ET · arrives 10:40 AM EDT

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±5 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YTZ?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 467 ft, visibility down to 1.33333 mi forecast at EWR that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↓ Arrivals into YTZ at that hour are usually not late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.14 in

YTZ (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PD 2122 · EWR → YTZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YTZ?