PD 2726 · IAD → YTZ

departs 3:50 PM ET · arrives 5:26 PM EDT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YTZ?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at IAD that day

↓ Arrivals into YTZ at that hour are usually not late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.24 in

YTZ (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PD 2726 · IAD → YTZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YTZ?