Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 580
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
PD 580 · MCO → YYZ
departs 1:50 PM ET · arrives 4:40 PM EDT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 12%
Wed 10/14 11%
Thu 10/15 21%
Fri 10/16 20%
Sat 10/17 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at YYZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YYZ?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
1pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
YYZ (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.