Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 654
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
PD 654 · LAS → YYZ
departs 9:35 AM PT · arrives 5:33 PM EDT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 14%
Wed 10/14 18%
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at YYZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YYZ?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
PD's recent on-time record
↓
YYZ usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into YYZ at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
YYZ (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.