Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 5786
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
PT 5786 · PHL → GSP
departs 1:45 PM ET · arrives 3:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/14 15%
Sat 10/17 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at GSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to GSP?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHL that day
↑
PHL is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GSP
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.49 in
GSP (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.