PT 5974 · ART → PHL

took off 5:36 PM ET · expected to land 6:28 PM ET (scheduled 5:24 PM ET → 6:55 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHL?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHL that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 5pm departures from ART are usually not late

Weather at each end

ART (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.01 in

PHL (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.49 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PT 5974 · ART → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?