PT 6012 · PHL → ILM

took off 4:56 PM ET · landed 5:57 PM ET (scheduled 5:04 PM ET → 6:51 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ILM?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHL that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ ILM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.35 in

ILM (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PT 6012 · PHL → ILM

Odds over time

How late did it get to ILM?