QK 632 · YUL → LGA

departs 6:39 AM EDT · arrives 8:11 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±6 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LGA that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

YUL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.01 in

LGA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2.33333 mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 632 · YUL → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?