QK 858 · PHL → YUL

took off 12:11 PM ET · landed 1:24 PM EDT (scheduled 10:05 AM ET → 11:45 AM EDT)

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to YUL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHL that day

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Arrivals into YUL at that hour are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.49 in

YUL (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 858 · PHL → YUL

Odds over time

How late did it get to YUL?