QK 860 · PHL → YUL

took off 3:43 PM ET · landed 4:54 PM EDT (scheduled 3:15 PM ET → 5:29 PM EDT)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to YUL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHL that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.49 in

YUL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 860 · PHL → YUL

Odds over time

How late did it get to YUL?