Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2148
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
QX 2148 · BIL → SEA
departs 12:05 PM MT · arrives 1:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 19%
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave BIL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.5 in of snow forecast at BIL that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
QX's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at SEA that day
↓
BIL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BIL (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.30 in
SEA (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.