Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2204
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
QX 2204 · SBP → SEA
departs 10:09 AM PT · arrives 12:36 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 25h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 18%
Wed 10/14 22%
Thu 10/15 24%
Fri 10/16 24%
Sat 10/17 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SBP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBP
↑
10am departures from SBP are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
SBP is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
SBP (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.17 in
SEA (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.