Schedule: FAA flight plans.

TAP AIR PORTUGAL · FLIGHT TP 209 IN THE AIR (OFF 5:32 PM WEST, SEEN BY ADS-B, ETA 7:40 PM ET)

Monday, October 12 Today

TP 209 · LIS → JFK

took off 5:32 PM WEST · expected to land 7:40 PM ET (scheduled 5:00 PM WEST → 8:25 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to JFK?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LIS

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LIS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

TP 209 · LIS → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?