UA 1128 · IAD → SEA

took off 6:47 PM ET · expected to land 8:44 PM PT (scheduled 5:43 PM ET → 8:08 PM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

LIVE

On time or early
<1%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
86%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.97 in

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1128 · IAD → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?