UA 1192 · IAH → SJU

took off 10:23 AM CT · expected to land 3:23 PM AT (scheduled 10:03 AM CT → 3:42 PM AT)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SJU?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from IAH are often late

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling8,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

SJU (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1192 · IAH → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?