UA 1261 · SAT → EWR

took off 12:59 PM CT · landed 5:20 PM ET (scheduled 12:51 PM CT → 5:55 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to EWR?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1261 · SAT → EWR

Odds over time

How late did it get to EWR?