UA 1289 · EWR → PHX

took off 11:13 AM ET · expected to land 12:54 PM MT (scheduled 10:04 AM ET → 12:20 PM MT)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

LIVE

On time or early
<1%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
83%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from EWR are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

PHX (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1289 · EWR → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?