UA 1477 · LAX → IAH

took off 12:28 PM PT · expected to land 5:13 PM CT (scheduled 11:45 AM PT → 5:06 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

61% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAH?

LIVE

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
50%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ 11am departures from LAX are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 12% of the time recently

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.24 in

IAH (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1477 · LAX → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?