Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1579 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 12 Tomorrow

UA 1579 · DEN → LGA

departs 1:59 PM MT · arrives 7:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±8 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 1pm departures from DEN are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1579 · DEN → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?