UA 1627 · LAS → IAH

departs 12:12 PM PT · arrives 5:14 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±5 pts −16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling8,367 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1627 · LAS → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?