UA 1757 · MCO → IAD

took off 12:58 PM ET · expected to land 2:53 PM ET (scheduled 12:50 PM ET → 3:20 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAD?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.97 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1757 · MCO → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?