Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1835 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 12 Tomorrow

UA 1835 · SAN → SFO

departs 12:45 PM PT · arrives 2:40 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±4 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↑ 12pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.24 in

SFO (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1835 · SAN → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?