Schedule: FAA flight plans.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1844 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 4:46 PM ET (1 H 34 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Monday, October 12 Today

UA 1844 · RDU → EWR

departs 3:00 PM ET · arrives 4:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from RDU are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1844 · RDU → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?