Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1867 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 12 Tomorrow

UA 1867 · CZM → IAH

departs 3:48 PM EST · arrives 6:18 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±5 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 3pm departures from CZM are usually not late

Weather at each end

CZM (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1867 · CZM → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?