UA 2054 · RSW → IAD

took off 12:26 PM ET · expected to land 2:38 PM ET (scheduled 11:59 AM ET → 2:30 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAD?

LIVE

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
41%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.4 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 11% of the time recently

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.97 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2054 · RSW → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?