UA 2253 · IAD → MSY

took off 9:16 AM ET · landed 10:18 AM CT (scheduled 8:40 AM ET → 10:24 AM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MSY?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.4 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.97 in

MSY (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2253 · IAD → MSY

Odds over time

How late did it get to MSY?