UA 2432 · SBP → SFO

departs 7:58 AM PT · arrives 9:08 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±7 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBP

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SBP (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.17 in

SFO (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2432 · SBP → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?