UA 2644 · PHL → DEN

took off 4:01 PM ET · expected to land 6:39 PM MT (scheduled 4:14 PM ET → 6:25 PM MT)

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

79% chance · ±0 pts +31 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DEN?

LIVE

On time or early
21%
15–30 min late
55%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.49 in

DEN (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2644 · PHL → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?