Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2649 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 12 Tomorrow

UA 2649 · SFO → SBP

departs 10:42 AM PT · arrives 11:55 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBP?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ SBP is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBP

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBP (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2649 · SFO → SBP

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBP?