UA 2826 · RDU → ORD

took off 8:42 AM ET · landed 9:21 AM CT (scheduled 8:01 AM ET → 9:19 AM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ORD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2826 · RDU → ORD

Odds over time

How late did it get to ORD?