UA 285 · EWR → ICN

took off 10:53 AM ET · expected to land 1:20 PM KST (scheduled 10:34 AM ET → 1:48 PM KST)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ICN more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ICN?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 10am departures from EWR are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

ICN (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 285 · EWR → ICN

Odds over time

How late will it get to ICN?