UA 3917 · IAD → EWR

took off 2:54 PM ET · landed 3:44 PM ET (scheduled 12:38 PM ET → 2:17 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to EWR?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at EWR that day

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.97 in

EWR (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3917 · IAD → EWR

Odds over time

How late did it get to EWR?