UA 4209 · BCN → IAH

took off 11:38 AM CEST · expected to land 3:22 PM CT (scheduled 11:10 AM CEST → 3:15 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

57% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAH?

LIVE

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
48%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ This route's recent record

↑ IAH is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BCN

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BCN (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling8,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 4209 · BCN → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?