UA 444 · SAN → IAD

took off 1:00 PM PT · expected to land 8:03 PM ET (scheduled 12:57 PM PT → 9:05 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAD?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.14 in

IAD (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.97 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 444 · SAN → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?