UA 499 · SEA → SFO

departs 7:08 AM PT · arrives 9:14 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 499 · SEA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?