UA 4 · LHR → IAH

took off 2:04 PM BST · expected to land 5:26 PM CT (scheduled 1:38 PM BST → 6:07 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAH?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LHR

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LHR (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling8,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 4 · LHR → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?