Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 504 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 12 Tomorrow

UA 504 · BWI → SFO

departs 6:59 PM ET · arrives 9:50 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±5 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling233 ft Visibility1.2 mi Precip0.35 in

SFO (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 504 · BWI → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?