Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Monday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 6 IN THE AIR (OFF 5:09 PM JST, SEEN BY ADS-B, ETA 2:16 PM CT)

Monday, October 12 Today

UA 6 · NRT → IAH

took off 5:09 PM JST · expected to land 2:16 PM CT (scheduled 5:27 PM JST → 2:56 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAH?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at NRT

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

NRT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling8,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 6 · NRT → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?