Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8170 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 12 Today

UA 8170 · ORD → RAP

departs 8:40 AM CT · arrives 9:59 AM MT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at RAP more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RAP?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, thunderstorms forecast at RAP that day

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Arrivals into RAP at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RAP (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8170 · ORD → RAP

Odds over time

How late will it get to RAP?