UA 8173 · LAX → KOA

took off 9:29 AM PT · expected to land 11:20 AM HT (scheduled 9:06 AM PT → 12:07 PM HT)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to KOA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at LAX that day

↑ KOA is prone to delays

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.24 in

KOA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8173 · LAX → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?