Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1004
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
WN 1004 · LAS → BWI
departs 12:25 PM PT · arrives 7:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 87%
Mon 10/12
Thu 10/15 38%
Fri 10/16 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±5 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 267 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.