WN 1086 · MSY → BWI

departs 5:30 AM CT · arrives 9:17 AM ET

Your aircraft is N9021F (B38M), coming in as WN 4713 from MCO: landed 11:39 PM CT.

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BWI that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1086 · MSY → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?