WN 1098 · PWM → BWI

took off 11:06 AM ET · expected to land 12:20 PM ET (scheduled 10:24 AM ET → 12:18 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BWI?

LIVE

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BWI that day

↑ PWM is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at PWM that day

↓ BWI usually runs smoothly

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PWM (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.24 in

BWI (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1098 · PWM → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?