WN 1131 · BWI → RDU

departs 8:08 AM ET · arrives 9:25 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BWI that day

↑ BWI is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.31 in

RDU (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1131 · BWI → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?