WN 1138 · BWI → RDU

departs 10:34 PM ET · arrives 11:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.31 in

RDU (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1138 · BWI → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?